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The next stage of the Marxist coup is taking place right now.  It was just announced that Alex Jones’ Show is being shut down by the Feds.  OAN, Real America's Voice, including Bannon (War Room), Dan Bongino, Tucker Carlson and soon all conservative media are going to be under attack and subsequently shutdown.  The Biden Regime believe that if they can shut down conservative media -- and shut them up -- that we will all go back to Fox News (the Murdoch UniParty network), and that we will be demoralized.  Certainly, the effort and goal on America First’s part should be to terminate all viewership of Fox News, aka TV for ‘Stupid People’ as Bannon refers to it -- because its viewers have RINO tendencies, seeming to have been politically castrated, maintaining a ‘don’t be confrontational, don’t rock the boat, and ‘play nice, albeit ‘cowardly’ with the Marxist UniParty attitude.’  It’s all a well-orchestrated Marxist strategy and psychological influence operation that has been very, very effective.  And most don’t even know it. But it’s obvious.

Be prepared for the coming “False Flag” violent attacks likely imminent in the coming months.  ANTIFA and other leftist groups will conduct random violence in an attempt to blame it on MAGA/America First.  Expect that to happen in the coming weeks and through the summer and the Election. Don't fall for it -- don't take the bait.  The goal is to justify the call for martial law, mass lockdowns, and ultimately the suspension of the November election. Further, terrorist attacks by elements of the millions of illegal aliens is more than likely. All will provide the Biden Regime excuse and justification to again lock things down – in the name of safety and security.  Keep in mind, attacks on infrastructure and the internet are likely components of this -- notably affecting platforms used by MAGA/America First to communicate.  Remember, the radical totalitarian Left is cunning, ruthless, and they do not give a [@&# !

At the same time, a major military conflagration is on the horizon, and it is increasingly more likely than ever. The Biden Executive Order authorizing the use of U.S. long range weapons systems on the territory of Russia has been signed and implemented.  The Brits and French have also authorized the use of their long-range missiles on "old Russia" (the internationally recognized borders of Russia). Russia is aware that these weapons can “only be mission-planned” by the countries that own them -- not by Ukrainians. Nevertheless, through PSYOP, deception, strategic influence, and the left-wing media -- it will appear that it’s Ukrainians pulling the trigger, all the while it will be the western armies that is both loading and targeting the guns (weapon systems). For Russia, we can only expect Moscow to retaliate at a time and place of its choosing.

Looking to China and Taiwan, China's Minister of Defense this week stated openly for the first time that "China's Army is ready, together with the Russian Army to defend international justice." All the while the U.S. remains deeply involved in Israel and the Middle East. Realize, it is China that is orchestrating the strategic imperative between Iran, Hamas, and Israel -- pulling the diplomatic and financial strings to suck the U.S. in deeper. Further, China and Russia are teaming up for the first time against America – all because the “compromised” Biden family and Regime orchestrated that partnership deliberately and intentionally, by design to ensure the U.S. is defeated militarily -- both internally and externally, which will subsequently and eventually force the U.S. to retreat as the world’s superpower.

My friends, it looks like we have a "choose your own adventure" of epic calamities ahead of us.  The three (3) pillars of the Marxist Democrat Communist UniParty strategy are being masterfully played … and will continue to be played --

 -         Lawfare

-         The Big Steal

-         Wag the Dog

Wake-up America – we continue to play tidily winks while they play world-class chess.  Folks, we are BURNING DAYLIGHT!  There’s no cavalry coming for Trump. Certainly, the next three weeks will be critical and will be the most demanding and influential on his fate – and it is not going to be good if they can help. They will be relentless! The burden on his shoulders is immense … he’s one man who has been doing all the heavy lifting. So, the question is – “what are you going to do?” It’s up to you!

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I agree with the calls that Joe Biden must go -- then what?  Replaced with who? How does that fix things?  It won’t, nor is it intended to.

Look folks, removing Biden is not the solution in any way, shape, or form. Yeah, remove him, get rid of him -- on the surface, I get it … it sounds good. Okay, got it … and you'd replace him with what, with who?  Seriously, who will bring America back to, at a minimum, where this country was when Trump left office in January 2021, and bring it back to that level within a year? Remember, THEY managed to essentially erase EVERYTHING President Trump implemented in less than a year.

I can guarantee you, there is not a single individual in the whole Democrat Party that could fix the problems and shortcomings with the horrific, failed national security policies and leadership we are facing and dealing with now.  Not a single individual! But realize, that that is not the intent.  The intent is not to fix anything. The intent is to continue the destruction of America – but to do so by making the average American accept it, feel good about it, because its what’s best for America and the world, because America is evil and deserves to be punished. The Woke indoctrination and “Diversity, Inclusion and Equity” are the cultural changes and mechanisms designed to ease you into the new normal.

The incompetence, ineffectiveness, and the destruction we are witnessing, and in fact, personally experiencing in our daily lives, are part of the overall strategy to destroy this country. While the normal reaction is to call for the removal of the POTUS, that does absolutely zero ... it does nothing, and it changes nothing.  The problem they have is now a PERCEPTION problem -- how Biden is perceived on the national and world stage – he’s a liability. The perception of how “its going” because of Biden's ineptness and incompetence is now the problem for the political-left and the Democrats.

We desperately need to "REMOVE" the “PUPPET MASTERS!“  If you think Obama is pulling the strings, the fact is he’s not. At least not strategically.  Granted he is a key player and manipulator – he’s a loyal adviser and critical influencer, and essentially the Sejanus of the DC Praetorian Guard, albeit behind scenes, but, the drivers for what is happening, the crafters of policy, the strategic-level decision-makers, that is ALL above Obama.

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Here's the reality of it all. Here is what MUST happen:

- Termination and removal of ALL of the policies they've implemented.

- FIRING and REMOVAL of ALL leadership in EVERY Federal department and agency (and at least 3-layers down).

- TERMINATION of the WOKE-grip ingrained in the American culture and mindset of every aspect of it and a significant majority of Americans.

- Getting rid of Biden, changes nothing, you will still get the exact same results, decisions, and policies.  Biden is there because he will do what he is told. He will not ask deliberate and rational questions – he is not capable of that because his cognitive abilities are gone. His role is quite the opposite -- to not know or enquire about anything.  He is there solely as a figurehead and to sign what is put in front of him.  Biden is a “political eunuch and dolt,” as is Kamala Harris.  Unfortunately, those shortcomings as a person are a hindrance. Biden has become too much of a liability which is causing way too many to question the Democrats and the Democrat Party policies and viability. Many have had enough because of Biden and the policies and the party is hemorrhaging voters.

Realize, the 2022 Democrat Primary was planned and manipulated to ensure Biden and Harris, the two worse in the field of candidates ended up being the Democrat candidates on the Democrat ticket. Under normal circumstances, they never would have been the Democrat Presidential-Vice Presidential nominees on the ballot.

As a side note: you do realize, even replacing everything with Establishment Republican, neocon, neoliberal, Conservative Inc., globalist or Washington elites, is not the solution either.  It essentially gets you the same thing. 

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The Presidential Records Act allows and gives the authority to the President or outgoing President to Declassify any/ all documents a President takes with him when he leaves the White House. Also note, there is a record copy or multiple record copies of every classified document that comes into the White House and goes out. 

Note: Obama took ‘30 million pages’ of material out of the White House when he left in January 2017. Every President take classified documents with them when they depart the White House.  There is no exception – especially for President Trump.

The Presidential Records Act was not mentioned or referenced by the DOJ/FBI or Biden White House in any form or in the FBI Search Warrant. The fact is, a search warrant against a President of the United States is illegal, warrantless, and worse unconstitutional and criminal. Presidents are exempt from this sort of harassment and abuse.  Further, it is absurd the Justice Department even considers such a despicable and unconstitutional idea.  Obviously, there was no due diligence or any consideration of the law, US Code, or even common sense.  This is purely and solely political hit job and the mainstream media and every reporter who runs with this bullshit is an accessory to unprecedented lawless and third world Marxist Communist and Fascist style Gestapo tactics and operations.

Once again, President Trump is exempt, as are all Presidents from this type of abuse and harassment. Let me say this, I guarantee, there is an official document that Trump signed and witnessed by the National Security Advisor and the NSC Secretariat that was accomplished and recorded during the Presidential Transition period from November 2020 to January 2021 when President Trump left office. That documentation stated, IAW the Presidential Records Act pertaining to the transition of President -- all documents in Donald Trump’s possession upon departure are accounted for, documented, recorded, and were determined to be authorized to be in President Trump’s possession.

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It should be further noted that the office of the National Security Council (NSC) Secretariat records and documents every classified document a President ever touches, or is handed to the President by another person, from the specific organization, regardless of classification. Also note, every Presidential phone call with a foreign head of state, leader, military officer, etc. is automatically classified, to protect POTUS and the foreign dignitary should there be sensitive or even embarrassing comments. Again, all of the documents either classified (referencing the level of classification) or unclassified are documented, copied, and recorded for the purposes of being prepared and provided to an outgoing President's Presidential Library and identical copies are sent to the U.S. Archives for historical posterity and historical record.

With regard to the Warrant signed by Attorney General Garland, None of the referenced U.S. Codes, i.e., ”law,” apply to the ‘President of the United States.’

Let me blunt, I don't care who the President is, whether it's Barrack Obama, Bush, etc., or Donald Trump -- all Presidents, repeat, all Presidents are exempt from investigation, indictment prosecution for the improper, mishandling, classification, declassification, etc. under the Presidential Records Act, along with another relevant statutes.

-- 18 USC 2071 - concealment, removal, or mutilation of classified documents and records 

-- 18 USC 793 section of the Espionage Act

-- 18 USC 1519 - destruction, alteration, or falsification of Federal records

Bottom line: The President of the United States has the inherent Constitutional Authority granting him the ability by law to Classify or Declassify any document(s) he wants. He can essentially wave a magic wand and declassify anything any. Only POTUS has that authority – President Trump is totally exempt from any allegation, accusation, arrest, indictment, or prosecution in this absurd action and behavior by the Attorney General, the FBI Director, and the Biden Regime claiming the mishandling and theft of classified material, etc.  Any and everything that has transpired as it pertains to this ‘unjustified raid,’ as well as any of the prior investigations, on going coordination (to include visits to Mar-a-Largo) by the DOJ and FBI -should have been handled during the Presidential Transition period between November 2020 and January 2021, and not 19-months later, 88-days before the 2022 Mid-Term Elections.

The actions that have been undertaken by the Biden Regime, its White House, its DOJ, and its FBI and other agencies, are those of radical “illegitimate regimes.”  Legitimate governments do not conduct themselves in this manner. This is the exact behavior seen each and every time up to and during Communist Revolutions around the world.  This is the standard modus operandi, so to speak. 

The Biden Regime is an ardent hardline Marxist Communist regime and hellbent on trying to delegitimize President Trump, by any means necessary, in an attempt to prevent him from running for President of the United States in 2024.  We know what this is really about and we know the motives and intent driving this abhorrent activity and behavior on the part of the FBI, DOJ and the Biden Regime.

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President Trump needs to file and announce his run for the 2024 Presidential race now!  Doing so formally makes him an officially "announced candidate."  It changes the dynamic. It makes him an exempt candidate. This is important because at that point the Democrats aka Communists, to using Federal authority and power demonstrates an abuse of Federal authority and power to specifically go after a candidate. I realize that for many this may be difficult to understand -- but realize that by becoming an official candidate, the Biden Regime by implementing such an act, against a candidate, let alone a President –this forces the regime -- its true intent, in its purist sense -- the utilizing Federal assets illegally and clearly demonstrates an unconstitutional abuse of power, authority and the Constitution.  Further, and this is key, by announcing and filing as a candidate, anything the Communists thugs in the Federal Government and agencies does or attempts to do to President Trump will be seen as a deliberately and intentionally usurping its Constitution authority … it will be obvious and clear to all to see, beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Can you image for even a second, the using of the "Federal Government" in an effort to trying stop a legitimate federal candidate. Note, I specifically made the point to use the term the “Federal Government" – and not the Democrat Party, and or some other political candidate doing a smear campaign against President Trump. This is not campaign politics. This is the Federal Government, under the leadership of the Marxist thug bosses at the DOJ, the FBI, and no doubt the Biden Regime White House. This is the Biden Regime taking it up itself to utilize the powers of those Departments and other Federal agencies to deliberately and intentionally attacking a private citizen, who will be next? 

Further, it demonstrates and proves that the Biden Regime clearly, will go to any lengths and take any steps necessary to abuse its Constitution authority and responsibilities to justify the means, such as this. It must be realized that the raid was more than obviously a partisan act on the part of the Democrat Communists. It was in fact, criminally nefarious, again for utilizing the powers of Federal Government authority to deliberately attack a citizen – no doubt in an attempt take-out or take-down a candidate. This is and was an unprecedented act – except of course, in places like China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, etc. Worse, as consistently stated, it is a massive and horrific abuse of Federal authority and power. So, we have a third world Banana Republic operation that has transformed America from a Constitutional Republic, into a totalitarian Marxist Communist state.

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Bottom line, again, President Trump needs to file and announce his run for the 2024 Presidential race now. By doing so, officially makes President Trump an "announced candidate."  Further, by President Trump announcing and filing as a 2024 candidate, serves to force the Biden Regime and the Marxist thugs in the Federal bureaucracy to “PROVE” that the actions they take against a candidate, are specifically partisan. Likewise, doing so identifies “intent” to use of Federal authority and agencies for purely partisan politics. It also demonstrates an effort to weaponize the Federal agencies and assets for the intent and purpose to conduct “partisan political” raids, attacks, subversion, and sabotage, or worse. At the same time, it actually turns the DOJ, FBI, and other agencies into “lethal arms” of the Democrat Communist Party, hence no different than the Gestapo, Stasi, or KGB.

Announcing his 2024 run, President Trump builds the case against the Biden Regime abuse and unconstitutional tactics, it protects the rolls of candidates and shields them from similar acts and protects the American Republic from further abuses. Further, it helps to validate and bolster the argument that these same abusive methods were used by the Obama Regime went it utilized FISA warrants, bugging and wire-tapping, and illegal investigations and seizures – all of which are supposed to protected by the Fourth Amendment. 

Formerly becoming an official candidate helps Americans to realize and better understand that any acts taken against President Trump are politically driven partisan acts illegally and unconstitutionally executed utilizing Federal authority, assets, and power. 

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I’ve believed all along that the radical-Left Marxist-Socialists Communists are absolutely convinced that they are very close to completely breaking this country, truly in theoretical Cloward-Piven fashion; economically, financially, politically, socially, culturally, and militarily and they are now pressing to take the nation to its tipping-point.  Understand they will continue despite recent Conservative victories handed down by the Supreme Court on Abortion and the Second Amendment.  

Secondly, (and this is critical), they believe that regardless of whatever damage their failed policies may wreak and destroy, that they will never be held accountable by the American people during the upcoming November 2022 Mid-Term elections since they believe that they can and will control the electoral outcomes just like in November 2020.

This combination of factors has emboldened them to double-down and go for the juggler, for the knockout win in the November Mid-Terms!  As we say in military planning; “the enemy always gets a vote!”  And politically; “the ends justify the means.”  Again, they are going to double-down; “scorched earth”!

For us, The Price of Freedom is Eternal Vigilance!

I’ve given this much thought over the past several months to the current state of our nation’s politics.

I have come to the gradual and calculated conclusion that our politics can be seen as a prize fight between two boxers: the radical-Left Marxist-Socialist/Communist Left, formerly Democrats, and their enablers -- the Establishment, cocktail-party Elitist Uni-Party Republicans vs. the Constitutional Conservative Republicans and MAGA patriots. Since Jan 21, 2021, Biden and his radical-Left Marxist-Socialist/Communist have ruled this nation by consistently doubling-down on their deadly, destructive and dysfunctional economic, financial, political, social, cultural, military radical-left “woke” policies. 

With that, I believe that they have done this for two reasons.

First, they are absolutely convinced they are so very close to breaking the country economically, financially, politically, socially, culturally, and militarily they are now pressing to take the nation to its tipping-point.

Secondly, (and this is critical), they believe that regardless of whatever damage their failed policies may wreak and destroy -- that they will never be held ultimately accountable to the American people during the upcoming November 2022 Mid-Term Elections as they believe that they can and will control the electoral outcomes just like in November 2020. Without a single prosecution to date for the massive voter and election fraud from the 2020 -- the political-Left feels vindicated and validated despite the criminality of what implemented and pulled-off. This combination of factors has emboldened them to double-down and go for the “knock-out” win in the November Mid-Terms!

As we enter the long hot summer of 2022, I believe the following scenario (or relatively similar) will likely attempt and perhaps even force to play-out over next four-months in the run-up to the November 2022 Mid-Term Elections:

1. The Long Hot Summer -- Part 2:  The radical-Left Marxist-Socialists Communists will soon put their Antifa revolutionary cadres and BLM thugs back on the nation’s streets to ignite another summer of racial and political mayhem, rioting, looting, burning, and civil unrest like the summer of 2020. Note, that the Biden Justice Department last week tossed out all charges against Antifa from all of their 2020 incidents.  Also note, that they will use the SCOTUS Roe vs. Wade decision, as well as any conveniently manufactured police misconduct as their justification and political provocations.

1. It’s a Very Dangerous World for America:  Against this backdrop of national riots and destruction we’ll be simultaneously presented with a series of compounding international national security challenges orchestrated by PRC, Russia, Iran, and North Korea designed to overwhelm us and our allies militarily and economically. 

The major components of how this might unfold are easy to guess – Russia/Ukraine War, PRC attack and takedown of Taiwan, along with likely North Korean provocations on the Korean peninsula, as well as parallel threats to Japan, and finally Iran will perhaps, if not likely, explode a breakout/break through low-yield nuclear weapon that will absolutely roil the Middle East and subsequently lead to an Israeli/Sunni Arab vs. Shite Iranian Middle-Eastern war. 

Given America’s now disastrously incompetent performance during last August’s Afghanistan retreat debacle, and the costly never-ending wars scenario in Ukraine, the illegally installed tenant in the White House posing as Commander-in-Chief, and especially his treasonous national security team (all beholden to the Davos Globalist cabal and Communist China/CCP are not up to these challenges ahead. Nor, should they be, they are accomplices.   In fact, they have manipulated and implemented, as well as worked intentionally and deliberately to weaken America as part of the overall radical-left strategy to bring us to this point. They have positioned us, by design -- to place America on the precipice of destruction.

1. The September Surprise - A National Environmental State of Emergency: 

Finally, will call it ‘the coup de grace!’  Inlate August-early September 2022, Biden and his regime will use the pretext of an existential environmental, another pandemic and/or the worsening economic national emergencies to declare wide-sweeping dictatorial national emergency powers. Their objective will be to unilaterally implement wide-ranging “Green New Deal” totalitarian Socialist Economic powers and (this is important!) to unilaterally “Federalize” (by a Biden Executive Order) our Elections by using sweeping ‘emergency powers’ to change our voting laws back to the 2020 China-Wuhan Pandemic rules of universal mail-in ballots, drop boxes, and with extended ballot counting periods designed and implemented with the necessary time needed to ensure unquestionable victories in the minds of the American people.

Understand, while we have had many successes, as noted, with the recent Supreme Court decisions on Abortion and the Second Amendment, massive Republican wins with Conservative Republicans in the Primaries, and the ever-increasing shifts in voter registrations and or switching political parties from Democrat to Republican, specifically, as we saw in the AP reporting this morning.  Nevertheless, the Democrat radical-Left Marxist-Socialists Communist machine is vicious and vindictive, they are wounded cornered vipers and will strike relentless regardless of the cost to achieve their goal of total and complete destruction of America and transitioning it into totalitarian Communist state. They will go “scorched earth,” they will double down at all costs, to achieve that strategy and goal. Whatever it takes – the ends justify the means.  Again, “the enemy always gets a vote!”  In their case, it will be many!

Jim Waurishuk

Colonel, USAF (Ret.)

Chairman

Hillsborough County

Republican Party

chair@hillsborough.gop

waurishukj@aol.com

813-508-2728 (Cell)

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So, suddenly, there’s a new idea for a Ukraine no-fly zone.  Suddenly Joe Biden wants one, and 42 Republican members of the U.S. House agree with him. And of course, there the plethora of the ‘never ending wars’ neocon subject matter experts claiming six-ways to Sunday justifications for a no-fly zone. Be it emotional, hysterical, agenda-driven they have flooded the airwaves demanding that a no-fly zone is necessary.  Let provide the “real why” it doesn’t work and why it won’t work any better than any option offered.  Remember, we are dealing with Russia. And sorry to disappoint you, but even a “limited” no-fly zone is a bad idea.

Since the beginning of Russia’s war on Ukraine, calls for a NATO-imposed no-fly zone over Ukraine have been hampered by one big problem.  That problem is that implementing and enforcing a no-fly zone would no doubt likely result in the shooting at Russian aircraft and carry the significant risk of directly leading to a nuclear exchange. This argument until earlier this week carried the day in the White House, which has repeatedly ruled out a no-fly zone, or any other direct intervention in the war. However, things are different in Congress, to include both houses, as well as including the warmongering Neocon Establishment Republicans.  And as the war grinds on and casualties pile up, calls for a no-fly zone have grown, including a number of influential circles on both sides of the aisle.

The basic idea would be to deploy NATO assets to prevent Russian combat jets and helicopters from flying over certain parts of Ukraine to allow for refugee evacuation and the provision of humanitarian aid. Calls for a limited no-fly zone suffer from the same basic problem as a broader campaign: You can’t implement one without greatly heightening the risk of nuclear escalation.

There are really only two reasons (for proposing this): They have no idea what they’re talking about or they’re posturing. Moreover, there is no kind of no-fly zone — limited or otherwise — that would address the humanitarian crisis motivating such calls. Russia’s primary method of bombarding civilian-populated areas in this war has been artillery, not aircraft — which means that a Western intervention focused on shooting down planes would either prove ineffective or else escalate to something even more dangerous.

Nevertheless, the calls for a no-fly zone keep coming anyway: relics from prior wars waged under unquestionable American supremacy, unburdened by the prospect of great-power war and nuclear escalation.

Before I explain what a limited no-fly zone is, let me explain what it is not. In no way does it remain “limited.” There’s really no such thing. Period.

So, what exactly is a no-fly zone? No-fly zones are a commitment to patrol, combat patrol – that’s aggressive, because, if necessary, it means shooting down military aircraft that fly in the declared “no-fly zone” area, which was claimed for the purpose of protecting civilians.

In Ukraine, which would mean the U.S. and its NATO allies sending in combat jets to patrol Ukraine’s skies — and being willing to shoot down any Russian aircraft, combat aircraft that enter into the designated protected airspace. Since Russian aircraft are in fact directly and deliberately flying combat missions in Ukraine and show no signs of stopping, any no-fly zone puts us on a direct path to a shooting war between the world’s two largest nuclear powers.

However, to the proponents of “Limited no-fly zones” the “limited” aspect, are nothing but a notional claim and narrative that are supposed to be a way around this problem. They believe that by only operating in certain areas of Ukraine, they in theory believe this limits the risk that the U.S. and NATO would need to fire on Russian aircraft to enforce their mandate can be contained, maintained and controlled without any escalation whatsoever.

To this end, they argue that the U.S. and its allies should only commit to protecting “humanitarian corridors” — defined by slices of Ukrainian territory that Moscow and Kiev have designated as routes for civilian evacuation and aid provision. Of course, history notes that such humanitarian corridors were employed in the Syrian civil war but were frequently violated by Syria and its Russian allies; just this past week, Ukraine has already accused Russian forces of attacking designated humanitarian areas in the current conflict. Also, understand we are not talking about a limited conflict area, Syria where Moscow had limited deployed forces, we are dealing with Russia directly which borders and neighbors Ukraine.

At the same time, the proponents for a no-fly zone, limited or not, argue that a NATO commitment to protect those corridors would not lead to direct fighting with Russia, but would effectively deter the Russians from attacking them again. There is definitely a degree of fantasy at play in their logic and a significant degree of denial. They in fact noted in a letter this week that; “What we seek is the deployment of American and NATO aircraft not in search of confrontation with Russia, but to avert and deter Russian bombardment that would result in massive loss of Ukrainian lives.”

Unfortunately, there are some dire problems with this logic.  First, it inflates the deterrent power of a no-fly zone. The assumption that Russia would be deterred from attacking these areas by a NATO presence flies in the face of past experience. Looking to past history, understand, after NATO imposed an operational no-fly zone over Bosnia in 1993, its jets had to shoot down Bosnian Serb aircraft that flew into the protected airspace. It is hard to imagine that President Putin’s Russia is significantly more afraid of confronting NATO than the vastly inferior Bosnian Serb forces.  Let me note here that I will discuss, the historical precedence of the success and failures of no-fly zones, later in this article.

Secondly, setting aside shootdowns of Russian planes, securing even a “limited” no-fly zone would likely require NATO to go on offense.  There are complicated and complex factors at play. Realize, it is not just dealing with Russian combat aircraft.  It is also dealing with deployed mobile Russian air defense and anti-aircraft batteries in Belarus and from inside Russia’s sovereign border that have enough range to cover the entirety of Ukrainian airspace. Unless NATO pilots wanted to fly with the constant fear of being shot down, they would need to take those air defense sights and positions out. Obviously, attacking Russian territory, like shooting down their aircraft, is of course, an “act of war” on Russia.

Third, a no-fly zone would in fact do relatively little to protect Ukrainian civilians. One of the more striking features of the Ukraine conflict to date has been the surprisingly limited role of Russia’s air force, which has flown only questionably effective missions in Ukrainian airspace, mainly against military and high priority government targets. While Russia has bombarded civilian-populated areas, it has primarily done so using ground-based artillery rather than airstrikes. A no-fly zone might not even solve the crisis of Ukrainian civilians being pummeled by Russian ground forces.  Again, all of these factors cast doubt on the desirability of any no-fly zone, limited or not.

Further, let me point out that if the mission stays restricted to simply denying Russia’s ability to fly in Ukrainian air space, it would almost certainly guarantee clashes with Russian aircraft and air defenses without even stopping the killing of civilians. Moreover, what could follow from that would be risky “mission creep” …remember that term? It applies, in No-Fly Zone operations – in fact, it’s open ended exclusively. We all know how that seems to come into play with the globalist neocons at the helm. Certainly, the continued mass deathscould create significant pressure on the U.S. and NATO to target Russian artillery and ground forces, similar to the way that a 2011 limited no-fly zone in Libya swiftly escalated to a regime-change killing field operation that ultimately toppled Muammar Qaddafi’s government, as Hillary Clinton claimed, “... we came, we saw, he died …” and then came Benghazi.

Here's the facts folks. There is, in short, no such thing as a “limited” no-fly zone in Ukraine. Either NATO is using its forces to deny airspace to Russian jets, or it is not. And if the U.S. and its allies engage in such a mission, the logic of the mission inevitably militates toward war with Russia -- with all of the risks of nuclear escalation that entails.

So, if even a limited no-fly zone is obviously dangerous, why are some leading experts and members of Congress, both the House and Senate entertaining it? For one, there’s no denying that the situation in Ukraine is horrible. The suffering on the ground and the appeals for intervention from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who just desperately wants NATO to help protect his country from a Russian invasion -- have struck a chord with the politicos and their lap dog pundits and talking heads and the so-called subject matter experts.

However, the no-fly zone’s appeal in Washington is grounded in a particular post-Cold War instinct. There are the two groups of a number of American foreign policy thinkers in DC who suffer from a mentality where they are afflicted with a mindset developed in the post-Cold War where they advocate policies feasible against weak adversaries, they have ignored China and of course Russia as preeminent superpowers. In fact, they have become drunk on power after the fall of Russia in the Cold War.  They have moved in a director and of a belief convinced that the U.S. could and should intervene in faraway conflicts to protect civilians and enforce its vision of global order. This led to campaigns shaped by liberal interventionism and the war on terror, such as the missions to stop mass killings in Kosovo, toppling Saddam Hussein, and Afghanistan.

They have postulated the kind of wars that have preoccupied America for most of the post-Cold War period, introducing policies like air policing and no-fly zone, which in their minds made a certain kind of sense. Given the relatively rudimentary air forces and defenses of America’s opponents we’ve dealt with over the last 30-years -- it was not difficult for U.S. airpower to seize control over the skies with few major risks. The question was not whether the United States could accomplish this goal, but whether it should.  Of course, lets realize what’s at stake for the out-of-control Globalist neocons, it’s really all about a “color-revolution and subsequent regime change in Moscow” – we know that!  Its just one critical element of the total war against the Russian people in hope they rise-up against and takedown Putin.

That said, when faced with a nuclear-armed major power, be it a rising China or even a militarily inferior Russia, unfortunately, the low-cost logic behind a no-fly zone doesn’t apply. The military ignorant Mitt Romney’s of the world have no concept of what is really at stake -- that American aircraft would have to contend with serious air defenses; let alone realizing that regime change operations run a major risk of triggering nuclear annihilation.

With the “could” question largely foreclosed for these reasons; the “should” question no longer even comes into play. Yet Americans afflicted with the current humanitarian save the children mindset do not recognize this reality. They are still operating in a world of ‘shoulds’, rather than ‘coulds,’ one where the United States really can “do something” in the major conflicts of the day without risking unacceptable consequences. This is not a question of morality versus interests, as foreign policy choices are so frequently framed. There is no coherent moral view in which it would be better to stop Russian jets from bombing Kiev while significantly raising the risk of a nuclear war. 

Contrary to what so many of the Globalist Establishment mindset seem to believe, a no-fly zone is not a military half-measure. It is a combat operation designed to deprive the enemy of its airpower, and it involves direct and sustained combat fighting. The fact is, a general European war has not started, and we must do everything we can to ensure it does not. That means that a no-fly zone should be off the table.  Again, no-fly zones are offensive combat operations. Period.  

So, as I previously noted, I would address the historical perspective of the success and failures of no-fly zones in the post-World War II period where U.S. and allied forces were involved. 

First, the question is, why don’t most people get it?  Well, part of the reason that no-fly zones keep being brought up as solutions is that the nature of airpower is so poorly understood. The advocates have trumpeted airpower as a strategic and tactical shortcut for nearly a century. They claim airpower is a way to win battles and even wars without the messy complications inherent in ground operations and in other forms military arms and warfare.

After the rise of airpower in World War II, the idea of no-fly zones was invigorated by the lopsided victory in 1991’s “Operation Desert Storm” and propagated through repeated limited military air-centric actions going forward. These conflicts reinforced the notion that airpower is the solution to all military challenges overseas. The problem with this view is that it is not supported by a century of evidence.

Secondly, although airpower can prove decisive and has even been used as the primary method of settling conflicts, it is not a one-size-fits-all solution. Air campaigns, just like naval and ground campaigns, must be carefully tailored to political and military objectives, the adversary, the environment, and the prevailing conditions. Unfortunately, a by-product of a generation of low-intensity conflict and low-intensity operations has only reinforced this evolving political infatuation with two pillars of what we term political airpower: those being; airstrikes and no-fly zones. While each can be effective, neither is a shortcut or an end-run around a need for a joint-combined comprehensive strategy -- both are merely elements of one.

In evaluating the history of the “No-Fly Zone” it is important to understand the key objective for complete success of a no-fly zone is “air superiority” – this essentially means all out conflict. With a superpower like Putin and Russia, which means an “escalation.”

After “Operation Desert Storm” ended in 1991 with much of Iraq’s army still intact, Saddam Hussein was able to successfully put down revolts among the Shia in Basra in southern Iraq and the Kurds in northern Iraq. Fearing the inevitable retribution, well over a million Kurdish civilians headed north toward the Turkish border, which had not yet emerged from winter. British forces started a relief effort, “Operation Provide Comfort,” which was soon supported by a U.N. resolution plus American, Turkish, and other NATO forces. The no-fly zone followed close behind, a mere five weeks after the end of the operation.

The official declaration of a no-fly zone formalized the current state of affairs, as U.S. Air Force F-15s had already shot down two Iraqi Su-22 jets over northern Iraq by this point. Operations “Provide Comfort II and III” followed and then continued under the operational name “Northern Watch” from 1997 on. While the focus of the operation was on the “no-fly” aspect of the zone, operations in the north also enforced a “no-radiate” condition on surface-to-air missile systems and effectively defended the “Green Line” between Iraqi and Kurdish areas above the 36th parallel in northern Iraq. During these operations, U.S. forces were in direct conflict with Iraqi forces.

Further, in the southern part of Iraq, “Operation Southern Watch” began in 1992, following the success in the north. It was later expanded in 1996 to include a “no-drive zone” that prevented Iraqi military operations in much the same way that an (undeclared) military-free zone was enforced in northern Iraq. Southern Watch also served as cover for an undeclared campaign called Southern Focus, intended to dismantle all Iraqi air defenses in the zone prior to the 2003 invasion. Again, U.S. forces were in direct conflict with Iraqi forces. Most are totally unaware of that operation.

Likewise, in the Balkans (the former Communist Yugoslavia) from 1993-1995, “Operation Deny Flight” in Bosnia was also intended to protect vulnerable populations from air attack, although it did not provide Bosnian civilians with the same protective umbrella against ground force incursions as the Iraqi no fly zones had. By the end of the 1990s, no-fly zones were embraced as a practical policy measure -- provided that the goal was containment, and that the adversary was massively overmatched. In retrospect, the cost of the Iraqi no-fly zones was a bargain: $1-2 billion per year and no casualties from hostile action. However, once again, U.S. forces were in direct conflict with Iraqi forces.

Drawing insights from Kosovo. Part of the U.S. Air Forces key principle of its air doctrine is first to “gain and maintain air superiority” -- which gives ground forces the freedom from attack from enemy combat air assets, and thus provides for the freedom to attack.  However, the difference between the U.S. doctrine and principles of “air superiority” and a “no-fly zone” is that the latter tends to emerge as a political policy tool to protect vulnerable populations -- not a military tool to achieve operational military objectives and operational ends to conflict. To establish a no-fly zone, one must first gain and maintain air supremacy -- not merely air superiority. Air supremacy means not only control of the air, but also “the elimination of all threats to air operations from the ground.”

As previously discussed, the no-fly zone was born in a post-Cold War era when the U.S. possessed such a lopsided military advantage over its opponents that a political aversion to risk coupled with relatively low demand on airpower resources could still pull it off. However, there is no historical precedent prior to World War II and or post-World War II to establishing and maintaining a no-fly zone against any meaningful resistance, and meaningful resistance doesn’t simply mean enemy fighters anymore. In the realm of air warfare wherein the capability and lethality of modern proliferated Russian or Chinese air defenses and offensive air capabilities easily trumps the threat from fighters, a no-fly zone must prioritize all negating threats to friendly aircraft first to be successful.

Further, again, looking back, “Operation Allied Force,” during March-June 1999 the bombing of Serbia and Montenegro, provides a glimpse of the magnitude of what this endeavor might entail and shows that this is much more difficult than the casual armchair strategist or military amateur like Mitt Romney or the political ‘know it all’s’ like Nancy Pelosi realize. Operational and situation awareness is paramount, it was then, and it is even more so now. During the 1999 operation, U.S. military planners knew of around 45 surface-to-air missile systems in a theater of operations the size of southern New England, supported by a smattering of 40 millimeter antiaircraft guns and ubiquitous SA-7 and SA-9 (Russian-made) heat-seeking missiles. The newest system, the SA-6, was already 30-year-old technology at the time.

Understand, that the air threat posed by the Serbian Air Force was minimal, and it was rapidly reduced by U.S. Air Force F-15s and Dutch F-16s on those rare occasions when a Serbian MiG-29 took flight. During Operation Allied Force, to maintain freedom of maneuver during the 78-day campaign, 743 high-speed anti-radiation missiles were fired by U.S. and NATO aircraft against an obsolescent but credible missile threats. Combined with robust compilation of electronic jamming missions, the use of almost 1,500 towed decoys and counter-tactics largely negated the threat to aircraft (though they were also mostly restricted to higher altitudes to minimize risk). Those missiles were not just attacking radar sites, they were attacking the opposition soldierson the ground manning those radar sites.

Then there is the “logistics” aspect. By this I mean what is actually needed and involved to carry out a no-fly zone.  It’s NOT just transferring Polish Mig-29’s as it being pushed by our Congress and the armed chair political expert wannabe’s. Despite the bold effort put forth during the Allied Force operations, the U.S. Air Force lost two aircraft (an F-117 and F-16) to those threats, and a handful of other aircraft sustained damage. The suppression of enemy air defense effort was effective at forcing air defenders to keep their heads down while F-15 and F-16 aircraft engaged in a destruction effort, but it was a continual cat-and-mouse game. As always, the suppression of enemy air defenses was a team effort. In addition, Navy and Marine Corps EA-6B Prowlers, Spanish and U.S. Navy F-18s, and Air Force F-16CMs (counter measure aircraft) would suppress enemy air defenses by jamming radars and shooting anti-radiation missiles, while F-15Es and F-16CGs attacked the missile batteries with much heavier ordnance, often in the 2,000-pound ordnance class -- sufficient to turn a missile battery and its associated radar system into finely distributed metal scraps and debris.

In the end, as was critically noted, despite a world-class air force’s best effort against a second-rate defense, the U.S. never gained air supremacy. High-value intelligence platforms such as the E-8 Joint Surveillance and Target Attack Radar System were prohibited from flying over land where their sensors were most useful and instead had to stand-off outside the threat region. Though Slobodan Milosevic did eventually capitulate, Operation Allied Force is generally viewed as an operational failure that ‘happened to succeed’ -- and that was over 20-years ago.  The final assessment that should and must be addressed is that in both cases, Iraq and the Balkans, they were not a world superpower, i.e., “Russia.”

Folks, here’s the reality -- the success of a no-fly zone relies on the premise of conventional deterrence backed by the resolve to swiftly and ferociously enforce, again understand ferociously enforce it -- if challenged. It will at first it will gradually increase and extend in intensity into all out military operations that will then rapidly escalate, particularly against an adversary like Russia.

Attempting this today against a nation like Russia with the massive capabilities of artillery, man-portable air defense systems, and/or advanced surface-to-air missiles immediately suggests and unequivocally indicatesthat a no-fly zone is neither operationally feasible, nor is it politically appetizing at all to those of us who actually understand the operational and strategic requirements, the requirements, the objectives, the strategy and concept of no-fly zones, and the actual logistics and what it brings to bare.  There are horrific consequences, multiple-level second, third and forth order affects, and a certainly a degree of complex escalatory situations that in this specific case ignite World War III. 

And by “advanced,” we mean anything built since the 1980s that boasts digital processing, multi-targeting, longer-range missiles, and higher maneuverability. The proliferation of modern air defenses since the 1990s dictates that more sortie apportionment and resources are required to negate these threats — much more so than counter-air fighters. That’s the way it was in the Iraqi no-fly zones, where Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses assets were available alongside aircraft tasked for defensive counter-air or reconnaissance missions.

Compounding this, the fog and friction of war dictate that there will always be ambiguity of timely, accurate, and correct intelligence in operations. Therefore, it is not only conceivable, but highly that the conventional surveillance and reconnaissance constellation of aircraft will always remain at stand-off distances during a nation-state conflict, just as they did in Kosovo to negate this uncertain threat risk — though at exponentially further ranges.

In Syria, the idea of establishing a no-fly zone regularly surfaced, a misguided response to the use of Syrian (and later Russian) airpower. The eventual solution was not so much a no-fly zone as a defensive counterair effort over areas held by friendly forces. There, a no-fly zone was problematic for both practical and policy reasons since the majority of civilian casualties did not occur from air attack. The challenges of protecting civilian populations in a multi-faceted civil war were far more comprehensive than anything seen before, and the direct involvement of Russian airpower in Syria totally changed the nature of the conflict. Then, as now, any no-fly zone would have involved direct combat with Russian forces.

As of this weekend, in Ukraine, the Russian air defense threat does not appear to have materialized against Ukrainian aircraft, at least in terms of ground-based threat. That does not in any way mean there is not any or there is not a threat. That may be because, at this time, Russian forces still only control a small part of Ukraine, and they cannot emplace air defenses in the territory they do not control. Army air defenses move along with the forces that they defend and require some degree of protection against ground threats. Nevertheless, the Russian Aerospace Forces do possess long-range air defenses that can reach well into Ukraine from Russia (and perhaps Belarus). The Russian air force operate long-ranged S-300 and S-400 variants. These mobile systems can cover large swathes of Ukrainian airspace without entering Ukraine, although low-altitude coverage would be spotty and limited.

The dangerous and powerful fascination of a No-Fly Zone ignores the likelihood of escalation. The establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine would unquestionably be a major escalation in the conflict and would bring NATO and possibly other European forces into direct conflict with Russian forces. It’s also not clear what military advantage might accrue. The majority of Ukrainian civilian casualties seem not to be inflicted by airpower but by artillery. Russian precision strikes seem to be inflicted by ballistic and cruise missiles, which once fired cannot be interdicted by aircraft in a no-fly zone.

The fact that Russia does not yet have air superiority has not significantly impeded its advance. Ukraine does not control its skies either — the two sides have air parity. Enforcement of a no-fly zone would require overflight of Ukrainian airspace, putting coalition forces directly in the air space both sides are fighting over --and at extreme risk from both Russian and Ukrainian air defenses. Surface-based air defenses in bordering nations could only command airspace where Russian aircraft aren’t flying, having no practical effect except to commit NATO. The obvious Russian response, attacking aircraft over Ukraine from outside Ukraine, would be yet another escalatory element that would render Russian air defenses politically immune from counterattack.

From a distant viewpoint, like Washington, DC, the no-fly zone might seem like a somewhat impersonal option for the employment of military force, centered around a humanitarian justification. The reality is that effective enforcement involves flying over territory where fighting is occurring and enforcing a no-fly zone which of course means the “intent to kill” and destroy anything that opposes it -- whether a fighter in the air or a missile system on the ground.

In Ukraine, the potential no-fly zone is fundamentally a political statement, a political sham for eventually regime change. In this case, the political statement is much more than the threat of escalation — it is a direct escalation against Russia and a general widening of the conflict to include NATO as a direct combatant.  As such, a no-fly zone imposition serves only Ukraine, which would draw in the U.S. and NATO as co-belligerentswithout the precursor of a formal alliance. In effect, this political use of airpower would mirror the entangling alliances that brought Europe into World War I. The no-fly zone is the wrong tool for the wrong job and would create dangerous and destructive outcomes for both the United States and its NATO allies -- in deed, WW-III.

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